Ukulawulwa okugqithileyo kuPhando lweManyala: Makuyeke, makuhambe… (2021) nguPaul J. Wright

Ubushushu, PJ I-Sex Sex Behav 50, 387-392 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10508-020-01902-9

“Yiyeke, yiyeke

Andisakwazi ukuyibamba kwakhona

Yiyeke, ihambe

Jika kwaye umbakraze ucango” (Elsa – Disney’s Frozen)

Ubulumko bokuziyala kukaElsa ukuba ayeke ukuzama ukuzibamba bandichukumisa njengesifundo esibalulekileyo ebomini bam xa ndandiqala ukubukela. Frozen nabatshana bam. Ndiyathemba eyam intombi encinci (ngaphezulu nje konyaka ubudala, kwaye ndingumphulaphuli wokuqala Frozen iingoma kule veki) zinokufunda umgaqo obalulekileyo wokuzikhulula.

Inqaku likaKohut, iLandripet, kunye neStulhofer (2020) lamva nje malunga nephonografi kunye nobundlobongela obuphathelele kwezesondo lindikhumbuze ukuba bendifuna ukucebisa okufanayo kubaphandi bephonografi iminyaka embalwa ngoku malunga nokusetyenziswa kwezinto “zolawulo” (S. Perry, unxibelelwano lomntu, ngoJuni 26, 2018). Ngokukodwa, injongo yale leta kukukhuthaza oogxa bam ukuba "bayeke" kwaye "babethe ucango" kwindlela ekhoyo yonyango lwezinto eziguquguqukayo zesithathu kuphando lweziphumo zoononografi (okt, ingqikelelo ephambili yezinto eziguquguqukayo zesithathu njengento enokudideka, endaweni yokuba ngabaxeli, abalamli, okanye iimodareyitha).

Ndichaza iingxaki ezininzi ngendlela yangoku. Ndibeka owam umsebenzi njengomzekeliso othile, kunokuba ndicaphule umsebenzi wabanye, njengoko nam ndinetyala lokulawula ngokugqithisileyo. Kuba ndingumhlobo, ndikunye neKinsey Institute elidityanisiweyo, kwaye ndisebenzisana neStulhofer (Milas, Wright, & Stulhofer, 2020; Wright & Stulhofer, 2019), kwaye ngenxa yokuba inqaku lakhe lalilelokugqibela eliphembelela le leta, ndisebenzisa uKohut et al. . (2020) njengomzekelo othile endinokuthi ngawo ndibonise iingongoma zam. Injongo yam kukukhuthaza izenzo zophando eziza kwenza kube lula ukuqonda kwethu imiphumo yoonografi, kungekhona ukukhupha okanye ukuvuselela. Ndikholelwa ukuba oku kufezwa ngcono ngokuzivandlakanya okwakhayo wena kunye nabahlobo bakho, kunokuba ungabazi abanye abantu.

Indlela yangoku kunye neengxaki zayo

Uphononongo lweziphumo zophando luyinxalenye yophando lweziphumo zosasazo, apho izazinzulu zentlalo zisebenzisa iindlela zobuninzi ukuphanda ifuthe lephonografi kwiinkolelo zabasebenzisi, izimo zengqondo kunye nokuziphatha (Wright, 2020a). Ndingacinezeleka ukuba ndicebise indlela esebenzayo yokudinwa (kwaye udinwe, ngokwasemzimbeni nasengqondweni) uqhelene nomzimba wophando kunokuba uqhube uphononongo olubalisayo oluqhelekileyo (umzekelo, Wright, 2019, 2020a; Wright & Bae, 2016) kunye nohlalutyo lwemeta (umz., Wright & Tokunaga, 2018; Wright, Tokunaga, & Kraus, 2016; Wright, Tokunaga, Kraus, & Klann, 2017). Ngolu qulunqo loncwadi olunjalo, ndiye ndaqaphela ukuba (1) uninzi lweziphumo zoonografi kwizifundo ezivela kwi-1990s ziye zaqhutywa kusetyenziswa iindlela zophando kunye (2) i-paradigm yohlalutyo oluphambili kulo mzimba wophando kukubuza ukuba i-pornography isebenzisa (i)X) isanxibelelene nenkolelo ethile, isimo sengqondo, okanye ukuziphatha (Y) emva kokulungelelaniswa kweenkcukacha-manani kuluhlu oluhlala lukhula kwaye luhlala lungaqhelekanga ngakumbi "lolawulo" oluguquguqukayo (Z_{kwi-infinitum}).

Nantsi imizekelo embalwa yezinto eziguquguqukayo abaphandi bazibona ziyimfuneko ukuba zibandakanywe njengolawulo: amava ngesondo, ubume bokufikisa, ubudala, ubume bobudlelwane, ukuziqhelanisa ngokwesondo, isini, imfundo, imeko yentlalontle, ubuhlanga, iimbono zezibhalo zonqulo, ukunxibelelana ngokweemvakalelo nomkhathaleli. , ukuchanabeka kubundlobongela phakathi kwabatshatileyo, ukusebenzisa iziyobisi, imeko yomtshato, ukunxulumana nezopolitiko, iiyure zokusebenza evekini, imeko yomtshato yabazali, ukuthanda ukwabelana ngesondo, ukuzazi ukuba ungubani na, ukungahlalisani, iimpawu zokudakumba, iimpawu zePTSD, ukwaneliseka kobudlelwane, ukuncamathela koontanga, ukuthetha ngesondo kunye oontanga, ukusondela kubazali, ukubukela umabonwakude, ukulawula kwabazali, ukubonwa ngamava ngokwesondo koontanga, ukufuna imvakalelo, ukufuna inkanuko yesini, ulwaneliseko lobomi, imvelaphi yosapho, ukuzithemba ngokwesondo, ukuba namandla ngokwesondo, isimo sengqondo malunga nokunyanzelwa ngokwesondo, ubudala babahlobo, ukudityaniswa kwentlalo , ukusetyenziswa kwe-intanethi, ukubukela ividiyo yomculo, ukunxulumana nenkolo, ubude bobudlelwane, imvelaphi yokufudukela kwelinye ilizwe, ukuhlala kwisixeko esikhulu, ukuqeshwa kwabazali, ukutshaya, imbali yobusela, ukuhamba isikolo, ukuqhuba iingxaki esikolweni, iminyaka yobudala besondo, ukwenza ukuthandana, ukuthetha ubuxoki, ukukopa kuvavanyo, uthelekiso lwentlalontle, indawo ohlala kuyo, ukuphulula amalungu esini, ukuya enkonzweni, ukwaneliseka ngokwesondo, ukwaneliseka kukwenza izigqibo, inani labantwana, owakhe waqhawula umtshato, ubume bengqesho, inani labahlobo abakholwayo, ukuphindaphindeka kokwabelana ngesondo kwiveki ephelileyo. , kunye nokubhalisa kwisikolo sasemva kwesekondari.

Kwakhona-le yimizekelo nje embalwa.

Ingqiqo (ebonakalayo) ephantsi kwendlela yangoku kukuba iphonografi ayinakuba ngumthombo wangempela wempembelelo yentlalo; endaweni yoko, enye into yesithathu inokubangela ukuba abantu batye iphonografi kwaye baveze / bazibandakanye kwinkolelo, isimo sengqondo, okanye indlela yokuziphatha ekuthethwa ngayo. Ababhali abambalwa, nangona kunjalo, bachaza ngokucacileyo indlela inguqu nganye abayikhethileyo njengolawulo inokubangela ukusetyenziswa koonografi kunye nesiphumo esifundwayo. Ngamanye amaxesha, inkcazo jikelele yenziwa (ngamanye amaxesha ngokucatshulwa, ngamanye amaxesha ngaphandle) ukuba uphando lwangaphambili luchonge izinto eziguquguqukayo njengezinto ezinokuthi zidibanise kwaye kungenxa yoko zibandakanyiwe. Ngamanye amaxesha, akukho ngcaciso inikezelwayo ngaphandle kokudwelisa uluhlu oluhlukeneyo lolawulo. Kunzima kakhulu ukufumana izifundo ezichonga imbono ethile yethiyori njengokuthethelela ukhetho lolawulo (ngaphezulu kweli nqaku kamva). Kunqabile ukufumana uphononongo oluthethelela ukuba kutheni izinto eziguquguqukayo zamodareyithwa njengolawulo endaweni yokuxela kwangaphambili, abalamli, okanye iimodareyitha (andikholelwa ukuba ndakhe ndayibona le nto).

Njengoko ndandithembisile, ndiyavuma ukuba nam ndibandakanye ibhetri yolawulo olungafanelekanga kwizifundo ezininzi. Njengomzekelo omnye, kwi-Wright and Funk (2014), ndifake iinguqu ezisixhenxe zokulawula ngaphandle kwesizathu esingaphezulu kwenkcazo ethi "uphando lwangaphambili" lubonise "ukubaluleka kokulawula" kubo (iphe. 211). Njengomnye umzekelo, eTokunaga, Wright, kunye noMcKinley (2015) ndifake iinguqu ze-10 zokulawula kunye nesizathu kuphela sokuba "izinto ezinokuthi ziphazamise" ezicetyiswayo "kuphando lwangaphambili" (iphe. 581). Ukuzithethelela, ubuncinci ndicaphule "uphando lwangaphambili / lwangaphambili" olwalucebise ezi ziguquguqukayo ...

Lilonke, xa iphonografi ichaphazela uphando lomhlaba lujongwa ngokupheleleyo, yingxabano yam yokuba ukubandakanywa kolawulo kuyi-idiosyncratic, ayihambelani, ithiyoretical, kwaye igqithisiwe. Eyona ngqikelelo yam kukuba abaphandi banokubandakanya ulawulo kuba abaphandi bangaphambili, bakholelwa ukuba abahleli okanye abaphononongi baya kuyilindela (Bernerth & Aguinis, 2016), okanye ngenxa yokuba baye baba ngamaxhoba "kwintsomi yedolophu" ethi "ubudlelwane kunye nolawulo oluguquguqukayo kufutshane nenyani kunokuba ngaphandle kwezinto eziguquguqukayo zolawulo” (Spector & Brannick, 2011, p. 296). Ndiyazi ukuba ngaphambili kumsebenzi wam nganye kwezi yayisebenza kum.

Iingxaki ngale "yonke into kodwa indlela yokutshiza ikhitshi" ukulawula ukubandakanywa okuguquguqukayo (Becker, 2005, p. 285) zininzi. Kodwa ezi zimbini zibaluleke kakhulu kwindlela yolawulo esetyenziswayo kwiziphumo zoburheletya kuncwadi zezi:

Ithuba lemposiso yoHlobo lwe-II yokwanda ngenxa yokwahluka kokwenyani okucalulwayo kwiphonografi-ulungelelwaniso lwesiphumo (Becker, 2005). U-Becker uphawula kwakhona ukuba i-Type I iimpazamo zinokunyuka ukuba ulawulo lunxulunyaniswa ne-predictor kodwa kungekhona inqobo. Nangona kunjalo, andiyazi le nto njengengxaki kwimifanekiso engamanyala kuncwadi. Umbuzo uhlala ungowokuba ingaba iphonografi ebaluleke kakhulu-isiphumo se-bivariate correlation ibambe emva kokulawula Zintengiso.
Ithuba lokungabikho ngokupheleleyo kunye / okanye ukungaqondi kakuhle "i-antecedents-contexts-effects" kwi-pornography-isiphumo esiguquguqukayo sikhula ngokukhawuleza (Campbell & Kohut, 2017, p. 8). Ukuqhubela phambili kolwazi akugcini nje ngokudodobala kodwa kugxininiswe rhoqo xa ukuhluka kubangelwa ngokungachanekanga "kubhidanisa" xa i-third-variable, ngokwenene, i-predictor, umlamli, okanye imodareyitha kwinkqubo yeziphumo zephonografi (Spector & Brannick, 2011). Kungenxa yesi sizathu sokuba u-Meehl (1971) achonge indlela yangoku yokutshintsha kwesithathu kwiincwadi zephonografi (oko kukuthi, ukulinganisa ngokugqithiseleyo njengolawulo, kungekhona ababikezeli, abalamli, okanye abamodareyitha) "njengendlela yokwenza izinto" ekhokelela "kumbi kakhulu." iingcamango ezigwenxa” (iphe. 147).

Ezi ngxaki ngamanye amaxesha zinokudibanisa enye kwenye. Umzekelo, ukuba eyona nto ingumlamli imodareyithwa njengolawulo, ukungaqondi kakuhle kuyanda njengoko lenza ithuba lempazamo yoHlobo lwe-II malunga nokuya kuxhaphaka kwephonografi-isiphumo sokunxulumana ngokuyinxenye.

Unqulo kunye nokufuna imvakalelo yimizekelo ephambili. Ezi ziguquko zithathwa njengento enokuthi idideke kufuneka "ilawuleke" xa, eqinisweni, kukho ubungqina bokuba bayingxenye yenkqubo yemiphumo yoonografi. Perry (2017, 2019; bona kwakhona uPerry & Hayward, 2017) ufumene kwizifundo ezininzi zexesha elide kuzo zonke iisampulu ezahlukeneyo zokujonga iphonografi ngokulindelekileyo kuqikelela ukwehla kwenkolo kulutsha kunye nabantu abadala. Ke, kunokuba inkolo ibhidanise ubudlelwane phakathi, umzekelo, ukusetyenziswa koonografi kunye nezimo zengqondo zokuzonwabisa malunga nesondo (umzekelo, uPeter & Valkenburg, 2006), inokuba ngumlamli (iphonografi → iyancipha kwinkolo → izimo zengqondo ezithandekayo malunga nesondo sokuzonwabisa).

Ukufuna uvakalelo kuye kwaqondwa njengophawu olungaguqukiyo olunokubhidanisa kuphela iphonografi-ulungelelwaniso lweziphumo. Ingxelo ethatyathiweyo kukuba ukufuna uvakalelo kunokuchaphazela ukusetyenziswa koonografi kwaye (faka isiphumo somngcipheko wesondo apha) kwaye ngoko ke kube yinto ephazamisayo, kodwa ayinakuchaphazeleka kukusetyenziswa koonografi. Ingxelo yobungqina icebisa ngenye indlela, nangona kunjalo. Kwindawo yosasazo lwezesondo ngokubanzi, u-Stoolmiller, uGerrard, uSargent, Worth, kunye noGibbons (2010) bafunyenwe kumaza abo amane, iminyaka emininzi yokufunda ixesha elide labakwishumi elivisayo ukuba ukubonwa kwe-movie okulinganiswe ngu-R kuqikelelwe ukuba bafuna ukuziva kamva, ngelixa imvakalelo yangaphambili ifuna. khange iqikelele ukubonwa kwebhanyabhanya okukalwe R kamva. Stoolmiller et al. qaphela ukuba iziphumo zabo "zibonelela ngobungqina obunobungqina bempembelelo yeendaba zokusingqongileyo ekufuneni imvakalelo" (iphe. 1). Uhlalutyo olulandelayo lwale datha lugxininise kumxholo wesondo ngokuthe ngqo lufumene ukuba ukuvezwa komxholo wesondo kuqikelelwe ukwanda kokufuna imvakalelo, nto leyo eyaxela kwangaphambili ukuziphatha okuyingozi ngokwesondo (O'Hara, Gibbons, Gerrard, Li, & Sargent, 2012). Kwindawo yephonografi ngokuthe ngqo, uhlalutyo lwethu lwamva nje lwephonografi kunye nesondo esingenakhondom ngaphandle kwekhondom kuvavanywa ngokucacileyo ukuba ukufuna imvakalelo kucingwa ngcono njengokubhida okanye umlamli (Tokunaga, Wright, & Vangeel, 2020). Idatha ixhase ukuqondwa kolamlo, hayi ukucinga okubhidayo.

Izimo zengqondo “ezikhoyo” ngokwesondo nazo ziye zacingelwa ukuba zibhidanisa iphonografi-imibutho yokuziphatha ngokwesondo. Nangona kunjalo, usebenzisa i-metasamples ezine zelizwe ezinokwenzeka zabantu abadala, imilinganiselo emibini yokusetyenziswa koonografi, imilinganiselo emibini yesimo sengqondo sesondo, kunye nemilinganiselo emibini yokuziphatha ngokwesondo, ndifumene kuphando olutshanje ukuba izimo zengqondo zesondo azizange zidibanise i-pornography-imibutho yokuziphatha ngokwesondo; baye babalamla (iphonografi → izimo zengqondo zesini → ukuziphatha ngokwesondo) (Wright, 2020b). Ngokunjalo, uhlalutyo lwethu lwemeta lwephonografi kunye noncwadi lwesini olungenabuntu lufumanise ukuba iphonografi isebenzisa indlela yokuziphatha engeyiyo eyesondo eqikelelweyo ngezimo zesondo ezingezizo ezomntu (okt, izimo zengqondo zokungakhathali ngokwesondo yayingumlamli). Akukho bungqina bufunyenweyo kuqikelelo lokuba unxulumano phakathi kwephonografi kunye nokuziphatha okungafanelekanga ngokwesondo kwabhidaniswa sisimo sengqondo sezesondo (Tokunaga, Wright, & Roskos, 2019).

Kodwa izinto eziguquguqukayo ezithile-umzekelo, izibalo zabantu-ngokuqinisekileyo kufuneka zibhideke kuphela, umntu unokuphendula. Ndicebisa ukuba nezinto eziguquguqukayo “zenani labantu” mazihlolwe ngononophelo. Qwalasela i-sexual orientation, uguquko oluthatyathwe lula njengolawulo kwimpembelelo yephonografi kuncwadi. Idatha yodliwano-ndlebe icacile ukuba iphonografi inokuchaphazela kokubili ukuqonda kunye nokubonakaliswa kwesazisi esahlukileyo ngokwesondo. Umzekelo, indoda kuphononongo luka-Giano (2019) lwendlela amava esondo e-intanethi abumba ngayo izazisi zamadoda athandana namanye athi:

Ndikhumbula okokuqala ndaya kwindawo ye-porn ye-gay kwaye ndabona amadoda amabini eziphatha ngesondo. Ndikhumbula ndicinga ukuba akufuneki ndivulwe ukuba andikho i-gay, kodwa ndandinjalo. Kungelo xesha kanye endathi ndaqonda ukuba yinyani le nto—ndiligay. Yayivuyisa ngokulinganayo kwaye isoyikisa. (iphe. 8)

Ngokufanayo, uBond, uHefner, kunye noDrogos (i-2009) babika ukuba "amadoda amancinci kwinqanaba elingaphambi kokuphuma asebenzisa imifanekiso engamanyala ye-Intanethi ukuqonda nokuphuhlisa iimvakalelo zabo zesini" (iphe. 34).

Ngamafutshane, kunye nendlela yangoku yokulawula kwiincwadi zephonografi, (1) "amandla anokunciphisa [oku] kunokukhokelela kwimpazamo yoHlobo lwe-II (Becker, 2005, iphe. 287) kunye (2) "inokwenzeka ukuba [izinto eziguquguqukayo zesithathu ezilondolozwe ngokwerotely njengolawulo] zidlala indima enkulu kuneyongezelelweyo kuthungelwano lobudlelwane umphandi afundayo,” kodwa ngokulusizi asiyazi le nto (Becker et al., 2016, p. 160).

Kohut et al. (2020) ingxelo yeziphumo zokusebenzisa iphonografi kunye nobundlobongela obuphathelele kwezesondo kwiisampulu ezimbini zamadoda akwishumi elivisayo. Ukukhethwa kwabo kunye nokulungiswa kolawulo lulandela ipateni ephambili kwiimpembelelo zephonografi kwaye ayiyona nto yam ephambili yokugxininisa. Njengabanye abaninzi, kuquka nam (bona uTokunaga et al., 2019 kunye noWright, 2020b, ngaphandle), abazange bachonge nayiphi na ithiyori njengesikhokelo sokuchonga kwabo ulawulo. Bavele bacaphula isililo sabo sangaphambili (uBaer, uKohut, & Fisher, i-2015) malunga nezifundo zangaphambili "ukungaphumeleli ukuphendula malunga neengxabano ezinokubakho" (iphe. 2) kwaye baqala ukudwelisa iinguqu ezininzi eziye zafumanisa ukuba izifundo zangaphambili zihambelana nokusetyenziswa koonografi. okanye ubundlobongela obuphathelele kwezesondo (umzekelo, ukufuna imvakalelo, ukuba nomsindo, inkanuko yesini). Njengoko inani leenguqu eziye zafumanisa ukuba izifundo zangaphambili zihambelana nokusetyenziswa koonografi okanye ukuxhatshazwa ngokwesondo ngokulula amanani kumakhulu, akucaci ukuba iindlela ezintlanu zokulawula ezidweliswe zachongwa njani phakathi kolwandle olunokwenzeka.

Ekugqibeleni, uKohut et al. baqukumbela icandelo labo kulawulo ngengxoxo yokuba ukufakwa kwabo kunikeze uvavanyo oluqatha ngakumbi kunokuba bekuya kuba njalo ngaphandle kokufakwa kwabo: "Ukungaphumeleli ukulawula izakhiwo ezichaphazela ngokudibeneyo ukusetyenziswa koonografi kunye nobundlobongela ngokwesondo kunokuchaphazela kakhulu uqikelelo lweziphumo ezisebenzayo zephonografi. ukusetyenziswa kubundlobongela obuphathelele kwezesondo” (iphe. 3). Akukho kukhankanywa kukhankanyiweyo malunga nokuba ezi "ziphithiphithi" zinokuba ngabalamli (umzekelo, ukufuna imvakalelo-ukusetyenziswa kwephonografi ukwandisa ukufuna imvakalelo, ethi emva koko inyuse ubundlobongela ngokwesondo) okanye iimodareyitha (umz., ukungxama-ukusetyenziswa koonografi ukuxela kwangaphambili ubundlongo ngokwesondo, kodwa kuphela ngenxa yobundlobongela obuphathelele kwezesondo. amadoda angxamile). Kwaye akukho nakuphi na ukukhankanywa okwenziwe nguBernerth kunye no-Aguinis '(2016) "ingcebiso zokuziphatha ezigqwesileyo zokusetyenziswa kolawulo oluguquguqukayo," ezithi "Yeka" kwaye hayi sebenzisa ulawulo ukuba ingqiqo kuphela yokubandakanywa mhlawumbi (1) "ukubonelela ngovavanyo olulondolozayo okanye olungqongqo lweengcamango zam" okanye (2) "kuba uphando lwangaphambili lufumana ubudlelwane obunobungqina phakathi kokuguquguqukayo kunye neenguqu kwisifundo sam" (iphe. 273).

Nangona kunjalo, nangona kuyingxaki, yayingelulo ulawulo oluthile okanye ingqiqo yabo yokufakwa kolu phononongo oluthe ekugqibeleni lwandikhokelela ekubeni (ekugqibeleni) ndibhale le leta. Njengoko ndiye ndavuma, ndibe netyala elifanayo. Hayi, eyona nto yayiyingxelo kaKohut et al malunga nokuhlalutya kwethu iphonografi kunye nokuziphatha okurhabaxa ngokwesondo (Wright et al., 2016) ngokumalunga nohlalutyo lwemeta lwamva nje lukaFerguson noHartley (2020). Ngenxa yokuba impembelelo kunye nokubaluleka kohlalutyo lweemeta zikhulu kakhulu kunalo naluphi na uphononongo olunye, ezi nkcazo yayiyeyona nto yabangela ukuba kubhalwe.

Kohut et al. (2020, iphe. 15) yachaza ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwethu kwe-meta-analysis 'ye-bivariate (kunokuba i-third-variable adjusted adjusted) ilungelelanise "ekunokwenzeka kokunyuka [kwe] imibutho egxininisekileyo" [sifumene ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwephonografi kwakuyinto eqikelelwayo. Ukuhlaselwa ngokwesondo ngamazwi nangokwasemzimbeni]. Baqhubeka besithi "uqwalaselo lwabo lokuthembela ngokugqithisileyo kukaWright et al. Ukuxhomekeka kakhulu kubungakanani besiphumo esinyusiweyo kuqinisekiswa luphando lwamva nje lwemeta-analytic olubonisa ukuba xa izinto eziguquguqukayo zolawulo zibalwe ngokufanelekileyo, ukusetyenziswa koburheletya okungenabundlobongela akudityaniswanga. ngobundlobongela obuphathelele kwezesondo (Ferguson & Hartley, 2020)” (iphe. 16).

Imiba emibini yezi ngxelo zilishwa ifuna ukulungiswa.

Okokuqala, uluvo lokuba ulungelelwaniso lwe-bivariate "lunyuswe" ngelixa ulungelelwaniso olulungelelanisiweyo lwe-covariate lubonisa ubume benyani bobudlelwane obubuzwayo ngumzekeliso oqhelekileyo wobuxoki obabizwa ngokuba ngu-Spector and Brannick (2011) "umgaqo wokucoca":

Inkolelo ecacileyo yokuba ulawulo lwamanani lunokuvelisa uqikelelo oluchaneke ngakumbi lobudlelwane phakathi kwezinto eziguquguqukayo zomdla, esiya kuthi "umgaqo wokuhlanjululwa," ixhaphake kakhulu, kwaye yamkelwe ekusebenzeni, kangangokuba siphikisa ukuba ifanelekile njengentsomi yedolophu-into ethile. yamkelwe ngaphandle kombuzo ngenxa yokuba abaphandi kunye nabahlalutyi bomsebenzi wabo baye bayibona isetyenziswa rhoqo kangangokuba bangathandabuzi ukuba semthethweni kwendlela. (iphepha 288)

U-Meehl (1971) uthe oku malunga nengcamango ephosakeleyo yokuba ukufakwa kwezinto eziguquguqukayo zokulawula kukhokelela kwisigqibo esichanekileyo malunga nobume bo X → Y unxulumano ekuthethwa ngalo:

Umntu akanakuphawula umgaqo wemethodological njengowudlala ngokukhuselekileyo xa kunokwenzeka ukuba uvelise ubuxoki obunganyanisekanga, ngaphandle kokuba sinefilosofi engaqhelekanga yesayensi ethi sifuna ngokungalunganga ukushiya ithiyori ezilungileyo. (iphepha 147)

Ndiphikisa ukuba iingcamango ezisetyenzisiweyo ukuqikelela ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwephonografi kwandisa amathuba okuba nobudlova ngokwesondo (umzekelo, i-classical conditioning, ukufunda okusebenzayo, ukulinganisa ukuziphatha, ukubhala ngokwesondo, ukuvuselela ukwakhiwa, amandla ngokwesini) zilungile ukuba akufanelekanga. Ukulahla ngokungalunganga ngenxa yokusetyenziswa ngokudabukisayo komgaqo wokucoca kuphando lweziphumo ezingamanyala.

Oku kuthetha ngokuthe ngqo kwinto yesibini engalunganga yezi nkcazo. Ngokutsho kukaKohut et al. (2020), "iinguqu zolawulo zibalwa ngokufanelekileyo" nguFerguson noHartley (2020). Njengoko uKohut et al. Ungacacisi ukuba kutheni bebona ukusetyenziswa kukaFerguson kunye noHartley kulawulo “njengolufanelekileyo,” kufuneka siye ngqo kumthombo. Ekwenzeni oko, umntu uyabhideka malunga nendlela uKohut et al. ivavanye uluhlu lolawulo lukaFerguson noHartley “njengolufanelekileyo,” kuba alukho uluhlu olunjalo. Ukukhankanywa okuthe ngqo kolawulo ngokubhekiselele kwisalathiso "sohlalutyo olungcono kakhulu" apho izifundo ezilungelelanise "impilo yengqondo," "imeko yosapho," kunye "nesini" zinikwa "inqaku eli-1" (iphe. 4). Into efunyenweyo kukuqinisekiswa okuphindaphindiweyo kwe-rhetorical evela kuFerguson kunye noHartley ukuba ulawulo lwabo olungachazwanga kunye nolungenakuchazwa "lubalulekile ngokwethiyori." Yintoni efunyenweyo kukuba "i-standard regression coefficients (βs)" esetyenziswe kwi-meta-analysis yabo "ibalwe ukusuka kwixabiso eligcinayo (umzekelo, ukubandakanya inani elikhulu lolawulo olufanelekileyo lwethiyori)" (iphe. 3).

Phambi kokujikeleza umva kumbuzo wokuba yeyiphi ithiyori okanye ithiyori uFerguson noHartley (2020) abasetyenzisiweyo ukuchonga ulawulo “lwethiyori olufanelekileyo” (ekubeni kungekho ithiyori yokuchonga ikhankanyiweyo kwiphepha labo), nazi iinkcazo ezimbalwa ezivela kwiingcali zemethothodi ezihambelana nokutyunjwa. "elona xabiso ligcinayo" kuhlalutyo:

Sithatha ngaphandle kwimbono eqhelekileyo yokuba amanani amakhulu ee-CV [izinto eziguquguqukayo zolawulo] zenza eyona ndlela ibhetele, engqongqo ngakumbi yemethodology kunokuquka ii-CV ezimbalwa okanye zingabikho kwaphela. Olu luvo lusekwe kwingqikelelo ephosakeleyo yokuba ukongeza ii-CVs kuvelisa iimvavanyo eziqiqileyo zoqikelelo kwaye kutyhila ubudlelwane bokwenyani phakathi kwezinto ezahlukeneyo zomdla. (Becker et al., 2016, p. 159)
Abaphandi abaninzi…bacingela ukuba ukongeza izilawuli kunyanzelekile kwaye kunokukhokelela kwisigqibo esisondele ngakumbi kwinyani kunokushiya. Njengoko uMeehl (1971) ephawula, esi senzo sikude ukuba silondoloze. Enyanisweni, kwiimeko ezininzi kungabi nankathalo. (Spector & Brannick, 2011, p. 296)
Impendulo yesibini ekufuneka iphinde imise uqwalaselo lolawulo ijikeleze ingqiqo yovavanyo olungqongqo, olungqongqo, okanye olungqongqo” lwengqikelelo yophononongo. Oku bubuxoki ekuqaleni kwadebunked kwiminyaka eyadlulayo (Meehl, 1971; Spector & Brannick, 2011) kunye nobungqina obaneleyo obuqokelelweyo okwangoku ukugqiba akukho nto ibambekayo okanye engqongqo malunga nokubandakanya ulawulo lwamanani (Carlson & Wu, 2012). (Bernerth & Aguinis, 2016, p. 275)

Lilonke, kunzima ukufumanisa ukuba uludwe olungekhoyo lolawulo lukaFerguson noHartley lwamiselwa njani “njengolufanelekileyo” ngaphandle kokuba lukhokelwa yingcinga eqhelekileyo elusizi yokuba “ulawulo oluninzi = isiphumo esichaneke ngakumbi.”

Kwaye okokugqibela, sibuyela kumbuzo wokuba ngaba kufuneka siqinisekiswe nguFerguson kunye noHartley's (2020) isiqinisekiso sokuba ulawulo abalubandakanyiweyo kuhlalutyo lwabo lwemeta luthatyathwe ngokwethiyori. Kuba, njengoko benditshilo, ababoneleli ngoluhlu lwabo olupheleleyo lolawulo okanye ithiyori okanye ithiyori eziye zasetyenziselwa ukuchonga olu lawulo kwizifundo eziphambili abazihlalutyileyo, ndiye ndakhangela izifundo eziqhelekileyo kuhlalutyo lwethu lwemeta (Wright et al. , 2016) kumagama athi "ukulawula," "ukudideka," "covariate," kunye "nethiyori" ukubona ukuba nayiphi na ithiyori ebizwa ngokuba yikhokelo yokukhethwa kolawulo kwezi zifundo eziphambili. Andizange ndifumane nabuphi na ubungqina bokuba ezi zifundo zisebenzise ithiyori ukukhokela ukhetho lwabo lolawulo (izinto eziguquguqukayo zesithathu kuphando lwemodeli ye-confluence [umzekelo, i-Malamuth, i-Addison, ne-Koss, i-2000] ngamanye amaxesha ibonakaliswe njengolawulo kunye namanye amaxesha njengeemodareyitha). Esona siseko “sesona senzo silungileyo” solawulo losetyenziso oluguquguqukayo oluqhelekileyo kuzo zonke iindlela zolawulo eziguquguqukayo ezikhankanywe ngaphambili sisikhokelo esicacileyo sethiyori. Ngaphandle kwayo, ukusetyenziswa kolawulo kunokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba kubangele iimposiso zoHlobo lwe-II kunye/okanye imodeli yokuchazwa ngendlela engeyiyo.

izindululo

Uyaphi ukusuka apha? Zimbini izinto ezinokwenzeka. Ndiza kuqala ngokhetho lwam lwesibini.

Enye into enokwenzeka kukuba iphonografi ichaphazele abaphandi ukuba baqhubeke nokulawula "iingxaki ezinokubakho," kodwa ukwenza oko ngokulandela ezona ngcebiso zibalaseleyo ezivela kwiindlela eziguquguqukayo zolawulo (umzekelo, uBecker et al., 2016; Bernerth & Aguinis, 2016; Spector & Brannick , 2011). Oku kuquka iziphumo zokunika ingxelo kunye nangaphandle kolawulo, ukubandakanya ngokucacileyo ulawulo kwiingcamango kunye nemibuzo yophando, kunye nokulawulwa kokulawula ukuthembeka okufanayo kunye nemigangatho yokuqinisekisa elindelekileyo kumanyathelo agxininisekile. Ndiyaqaphela, nangona kunjalo, ukuba ingcebiso ye-#1 ye-Becker et al. (2016) uthi "Xa ungaqiniseki, bashiye ngaphandle!"

Into yokuqala endiyikhethayo kukuba abaphandi bakhuphe iphonografi ukuba bayeke "i-confound" ngokupheleleyo kwaye baye kwinto enokubizwa ngokuba yi-paradigm "yokuxela kwangaphambili, iinkqubo kunye nezinto ezinokwenzeka". Ngamanye amazwi, endaweni yokuqwalasela izinto eziguquguqukayo zesithathu njengento engcolileyo kunye neempembelelo zephonografi kwiinkolelo, izimo zengqondo, kunye nokuziphatha, ndingathanda ukuba abaphandi beephonografi badibanise izinto ezintathu kwiimodeli ze-causal njenge-antecedents, abalamli kunye neemodareyitha. Olu khetho luhambelana ne-Slater's (2015) yokuQinisa iSpirals Model (RSM) yokusetyenziswa kwemidiya kunye neziphumo:

Iimpembelelo zosasazo zemveli zihlalutya ilinge lokuvavanya ubudlelwane besiphumo-siphumo ngokulawula kude nezinye izinto ezininzi ezinokuthi zibandakanyeke kwinkqubo ye-causal, ukunciphisa isoyikiso se-third-variable, enye ingcaciso yesizathu. I-RSM, ngokuchaseneyo, ingacebisa ukuba ingqiqo eyongezelelweyo inokufumaneka ngokubandakanya izinto eziguquguqukayo, ezifana nokungafani komntu ngamnye kunye neempembelelo zentlalo njengezibikezelo zokusetyenziswa kweendaba kunokuba zilawule izibalo. Omnye unokuqwalasela isiphumo esipheleleyo sokusetyenziswa kweendaba njengoko kushwankathelwe kuzo zonke iziphumo ezithe ngqo nezingathanga ngqo. Ngamanye amazwi, i-RSM icebisa ukuba iimpembelelo zemveli zeendaba zihlalutya, ngokuzama ukulawula izinto eziguquguqukayo eziyinxalenye yenkqubo ye-causal kwaye ayizizo iinguqu zesithathu ezibonelela ngokukhuphisanayo kwiingcaciso ze-causal, enyanisweni zinokuthi zinciphise iziphumo ezichanekileyo ekufuneka zibalelwe indima yokusetyenziswa kwamajelo eendaba. (iphe. 376)

Nangona inzululwazi yezentlalo ixhomekeke kwiingcamango ezimbalwa ezingenakuqinisekiswa kunezinye iindlela zokwazi malunga nokuziphatha komntu, ukuba sinyanisekile kuthi, kufuneka sivume ukuba izifundo zethu ziphuma kwiingcamango ezithile ezingenakuze ziqinisekiswe ngokungenakuphikiswa okanye zixoke ngokwanelisa i-100% yabaphengululi. . Ndazalwa ngo-1979. Kwakukho izazinzulu zentlalo ezazikholelwa ukuba iphonografi ayinakuchaphazela abasebenzisi bayo ngaphambi kokuba ndizalwe kwaye ndiyaqinisekisa ukuba kuya kubakho izazinzulu zentlalo xa ndingekho (ngethemba, ubuncinane iminyaka engamashumi amane okanye ngaphezulu) abaya kukholelwa efanayo.

Nangona kunokwenzeka ukuba iphonografi yindawo yokunxibelelana yodwa apho imiyalezo kunye neentsingiselo zinempembelelo, kwaye naluphi na ulungelelwaniso phakathi kokusetyenziswa koonografi kunye neenkolelo, izimo zengqondo kunye nokuziphatha zihlala zingenangqondo kwaye zibangelwa ngokupheleleyo enye i-arhente ezimeleyo kunye nengenakuguqulwa, Ndiyakholelwa ukuba kukho ukuqiqa okwaneleyo kwethiyori kunye nobungqina obubambekayo bokucinga ukuba akunjalo. Ngokufanelekileyo, ndiphinda ndicaphule uElsa kwakhona xa ndibuza oogxa bam ukuba "bajike babethe ucango" "ngaba iphonografi isaxela kwangaphambili (isiphumo) emva kokulawula isinki yasekhitshini?" ukusondela. Kunoko, ndicela ukuba siqondise ingqalelo yethu kwizinto eziguquguqukayo zesithathu ezahlula ukuphindaphinda kunye nohlobo loonografi olusetyenzisiweyo, iindlela ezikhokelela kwiziphumo ezithile, kunye nabantu kunye neemeko apho ezo ziphumo zininzi okanye zincinci.

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